Prioritizing real estate investments in elderly care
An elderly care organization with dozens of locations faces a major renewal task: 30% of its real estate is more than 50 years old and needs to be replaced. Over the next five to seven years, hundreds of nursing home places will need to be renewed: an investment of more than 200 million euros.
The wish list for renewal is bigger than the expected investment capacity, which means real estate choices need to be made. The organization has to determine quickly how big the investment capacity really is and what the best order is to replace the nursing home locations.
A project team with an integrated brief: strategy and financing
At the outset, a multidisciplinary project team was formed with one integrated brief: design a clinically grounded real estate strategy together with a matching financing strategy. The team, consisting of experts from the elderly care organization itself, Gupta Strategists and financial specialists from Zanders, had six months to do this.
We started with a market analysis and demand forecasts as the basis for future scenarios. We then set strict assumptions as the basis for the multi-year forecast. Next, we established the financing need: how much can be done from own resources, and when is external financing required? On the basis of this financing need, a financing strategy was developed.
A clear course for real estate and financing
We then drew up a decision framework for prioritizing the projects. This was done first on the basis of attractiveness for clients and employees, the principle being that the least attractive locations should be renewed first, in order to maximize occupancy and limit staff turnover and absenteeism. Prioritization then followed on the basis of real estate-related costs: the higher the current energy and maintenance costs, the higher up the list for renewal. We discussed this framework with management, in order to carefully weigh the options together.
We closed the project by adopting the real estate strategy and the prioritization of the renewal projects. The multi-year forecasting model and financing strategy were handed over to the client team, who now manage them independently.